Retail media hits $200bn as ad overload threatens growth

Global retail media advertising spend is set to pass $200 billion this year, but WARC Media is warning that slower growth and heavier ad loads could put both shopper experience and campaign effectiveness under pressure.

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WARC Media forecasts worldwide retail media investment will reach $200.4 billion in 2026 before rising 11.5 per cent to $223.4 billion in 2027. By then, the channel will account for 15.2 per cent of total global ad investment.

Amazon masks a sharper slowdown

The headline growth figures hide a more challenging picture for the wider market. When Amazon is excluded, retail media spend growth is forecast to fall to 9.8 per cent in 2027.

WARC Media said that would be the lowest year-on-year growth rate since it began monitoring retail media spend. Amazon also continues to dominate key markets, accounting for 78 per cent of US retail media expenditure in 2025, according to Walrus Intelligence.

Walmart took a further 7.5 per cent of US spend, leaving 14.5 per cent for all other retail media networks combined. In France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK, more than two-thirds of retail media investment went to Amazon.

Alex Brownsell, head of content at WARC Media, said the sector's maturation was forcing marketers and retailers to reconsider how they use the channel.

“The retail media landscape is maturing and consolidating, forcing marketers to rethink their approach. While retail media excels at converting existing demand, it underperforms on long-term brand building.

“Retailers face a delicate balancing act: growing ad revenue to boost margins without overwhelming shoppers with too many ad interruptions that compromise both shopper experience and campaign effectiveness. Success now depends on smart integration with other channels and finding the optimal path to sustainable results.”

Too many ads risk hurting the shopper experience

WARC’s The Future of Commerce Media 2026 report also highlights the risk of what tech author Cory Doctorow has called “enshittification”, where digital platforms degrade the user experience as monetisation increases.

Research cited by WARC found Amazon, The Home Depot, Macy’s and Walmart each serve more than 20 ads per page on average. The report argues that increasing ad loads as growth slows could ultimately weaken the effectiveness of those placements.

The challenge extends to whether shoppers notice the ads in the first place. An Ipsos study using simulated shopping experiences on Walmart and Amazon found memory encoding was 47 per cent lower for ads on retailer platforms than in generic off-site environments.

Creative quality made a material difference. Among undecided shoppers, stronger creative produced a 12 per cent lift in short-term brand choice, while those not in-market showed a 21 per cent performance advantage for high-quality ads over weaker creative.

Retail media takes more of major brand budgets

Despite the effectiveness questions, retail media is taking a substantial share of some advertisers’ budgets. WARC expects it to account for 55.8 per cent of global media investment by alcoholic drinks brands in 2027 and 54.9 per cent of food category spend.

Its share of technology and electronics budgets is moving in the opposite direction. Retail media is forecast to account for 15 per cent of spending in that category in 2027, down from 16.2 per cent in 2025.

Amazon is also extending its advertising footprint beyond retail. Its non-retail advertising business, including Prime Video and Twitch, is forecast to generate $6.7 billion in 2027.

Meanwhile, connected TV already represents 23 per cent of retail media spend. WARC expects video-on-demand advertising investment to overtake retail media globally by 2028.

The report draws on WARC data alongside external research. WARC’s advertising spend figures are net of discounts, include agency commission and exclude production costs, with inputs from media owners, industry bodies and research partners including Nielsen, Kantar and Ipsos.