Lyndall Spooner, Founder and CEO, 5D
Most marketing strategies rest on a hidden assumption: what made a customer choose you once will make them choose you again. Increasingly, that assumption no longer holds.
New research suggests the strongest predictor of how consumers choose a service brand is no longer demographics, attitudes or intent, but experience itself – specifically, their experience making previous purchasing decisions.
The findings point to a growing divide between the behaviour of first-time and experienced buyers, forcing marketers to rethink their growth strategies.
Decision-making habits are shifting
According to the research, the behaviour of first-time and experienced buyers began diverging around five years ago, with the gap widening steadily since.
For first-time buyers, the traditional marketing funnel still largely works as intended. Consumers entering a category with limited knowledge tend to rely on familiar brands, established reputations and recommendations. Awareness and trust remain key drivers.
But once consumers have made a purchasing decision, their behaviour changes.
Experienced buyers are not simply more informed; they are becoming more selective and more dynamic in how they make decisions. Technology is accelerating that shift by making it easier to compare brands, assess value and switch providers with minimal friction.
Every purchase teaches consumers what matters most to them and what trade-offs they are willing to make. As a result, experienced buyers are considering a wider range of brands at the point of decision-making.
Research maps more than 2,000 decision journeys
The study mapped more than 2,000 real consumer decision journeys across service categories.
It found that 66% of first-time buyers selected a large brand they had already planned to consider before entering the decision-making process.
Among experienced buyers, however, only 50% chose a brand that had been on their radar before the decision began.
The research argues that this 16-point gap reflects a broader structural shift in consumer behaviour – away from brands chosen from memory and towards brands chosen in the moment.
Switchers versus loyalists
The research also challenges the assumption that experienced buyers behave like a narrowing pipeline.
Instead, consumers are increasingly splitting into two groups: switchers and loyalists.
Switchers are more opportunistic, comparing providers regularly, responding to offers and moving between brands based on value or convenience.
Loyalists, by contrast, commit to a broader experience – including service, reliability and ease of use – and tend to deliver significantly stronger lifetime value.
The report argues that most marketing strategies continue to treat experienced buyers as a single segment, despite the growing behavioural differences between the two groups.
It also found that roughly one-third of brand choices are now being made by experienced buyers who only consider the brand during the decision itself.
These buyers are also the most likely to switch again.
The research warns that brands relying heavily on discounting and price-led acquisition strategies may be building temporary customer bases rather than long-term loyalty.
“A customer who signs up because of a low price is not committed to your brand,” the report noted.
“If you lean too hard on price and you aren’t building a customer base, you’re renting one – and the rent keeps rising.”
Retention becomes the growth strategy
The report argues the window for brands to turn first-time customers into long-term relationships is shrinking.
Technology has reduced the friction of changing providers, while consumers now have greater visibility, tools, and confidence when comparing alternatives.
As a result, brands are being forced to focus less on awareness alone and more on strengthening relationships with existing customers.
According to the research, the strongest-performing brands are investing in product quality, customer service and tools that improve the customer experience rather than relying solely on short-term conversion tactics.
The report concludes that awareness alone is no longer enough to sustain growth in increasingly competitive services markets.
Instead, long-term success will depend on whether brands can continue being chosen repeatedly by customers after the initial purchase decision.