Aussie ad revenue to reach $23.5bn despite economic challenges: GroupM

GroupM - Hubbl commentary - Melissa Hey

Melissa Hey: “Retail media is seeing accelerated growth … while the decline of linear TV is slowing.”

Ad revenue in the Australian market is forecast to rise 1.1% to $23.5 billion in the year ahead, according to GroupM’s mid-year This Year Next Year report.

Australia’s predicted growth is soft compared to that expected for the top 10 markets around the world, including the US at 5.8%, the UK at 4.9%, and China at 14%.

Melissa Hey, chief investment officer of GroupM Australia and New Zealand, said: “Economic uncertainty is front of mind for consumers, advertisers and politicians and continues to cast a shadow in Australia for the year ahead, but there are bright spots in the landscape.
“Despite the economic challenges it’s positive to see growth in the year ahead. Based on the current economic conditions, we’re expecting overall ad revenue to increase 1.1% across 2024 to $23.5 billion before stronger growth returns in 2025.”

Australia’s retail media market is set to cement itself as a primary growth engine for brands, projected to rise by 28.6% in 2024 to reach $1.162 billion.

Digital audio, including podcasts and streaming, is projected to rise 16.4%, despite the overall audio landscape predicted to remain relatively flat at -0.1% ($1.237 billion).
Digital out-of-home represents 75% of all outdoor revenue, and growth across the channel is forecast for 2024 at $1.246 billion (+7.3%). There is still under 10% of inventory traded programmatically.

Meanwhile, digital biddable media represents 76% of ad spend in 2024 and search has the biggest share: 37% of digital media.

The report forecasts a 13.3% decline in linear TV to $2.85 billion in 2024. VOD is expected to grow by 15.3%, and total TV is predicted to dip by 9.5% to $3.43 billion.

“Retail media is seeing accelerated growth, solidifying its position as a primary growth engine for brands, podcasts and streaming continue to drive growth in audio, while the decline of linear TV is slowing,” Hey added.

As the box office continues to decline year-on-year, the forecast for cinema has been downgraded to +2.6% to reach $117 million.

Top image: Melissa Hey

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